MPC summary based on calibrated models

Generate summary statistics & graphs

source("R/04_mpc_analysis.R")

Wealth targeted vs. estimated distrubtions

Adjusmtent Distribution 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Loss
AT Without Offshore Target 59.560088657 76.046481954 85.371078213 91.4202785754 95.152298781 9.753963e+01 9.896957e+01 9.973651e+01 9.997860e+01
Calibrated 58.553719036 77.745798892 86.669348880 91.8898300498 94.625974291 9.639907e+01 9.767369e+01 9.868958e+01 9.952093e+01
Difference 1.006369621 -1.699316939 -1.298270667 -0.4695514744 0.526324491 1.140555e+00 1.295885e+00 1.046931e+00 4.576656e-01 9.00439313890879
With Offshore Target 0.640182269 0.786475626 0.869171645 0.9228996711 0.956113836 9.774246e-01 9.902701e-01 9.972574e-01 9.996049e-01
Calibrated 0.640616903 0.808426093 0.884678670 0.9261863862 0.948878494 9.646307e-01 9.768965e-01 9.869039e-01 9.952443e-01
Difference -0.000434634 -0.021950467 -0.015507025 -0.0032867151 0.007235342 1.279385e-02 1.337354e-02 1.035355e-02 4.360570e-03 0.0901174752934757
BE Without Offshore Target 62.393114914 77.653333076 86.655588638 92.3576531217 95.893132419 9.803819e+01 9.930144e+01 9.985135e+01 9.999185e+01
Calibrated 57.394063261 77.683101875 86.680908928 91.7872182012 94.526350309 9.633290e+01 9.764195e+01 9.867874e+01 9.952208e+01
Difference 4.999051654 -0.029768799 -0.025320290 0.5704349205 1.366782110 1.705294e+00 1.659491e+00 1.172605e+00 4.697697e-01 12.0632197182107
With Offshore Target 0.678401541 0.808273492 0.884984045 0.9336581300 0.963928120 9.823870e-01 9.933537e-01 9.982622e-01 9.996931e-01
Calibrated 0.675796061 0.824473258 0.894573304 0.9305524477 0.951347872 9.661605e-01 9.778348e-01 9.874094e-01 9.954076e-01
Difference 0.002605480 -0.016199767 -0.009589259 0.0031056823 0.012580247 1.622648e-02 1.551886e-02 1.085285e-02 4.285550e-03 0.0919815489007353
DE Without Offshore Target 52.207392299 70.644043762 82.092841907 89.7542607861 94.690480409 9.764925e+01 9.916179e+01 9.981719e+01 9.999084e+01
Calibrated 50.874901862 72.136761803 82.669104598 89.1613069109 92.892129017 9.538945e+01 9.715439e+01 9.848024e+01 9.946690e+01
Difference 1.332490437 -1.492718042 -0.576262691 0.5929538752 1.798351392 2.259792e+00 2.007397e+00 1.336953e+00 5.239495e-01 11.9689964555397
With Offshore Target 0.575906144 0.738581662 0.839725505 0.9075358332 0.951361015 9.777832e-01 9.914772e-01 9.976274e-01 9.995375e-01
Calibrated 0.560523408 0.761730693 0.854228317 0.9088279643 0.940708913 9.610433e-01 9.755371e-01 9.867489e-01 9.952820e-01
Difference 0.015382736 -0.023149032 -0.014502812 -0.0012921311 0.010652102 1.673989e-02 1.594012e-02 1.087845e-02 4.255578e-03 0.113335644599141
ES Without Offshore Target 69.705812419 83.592383655 90.730726084 94.8464290773 97.311446870 9.871142e+01 9.948764e+01 9.987299e+01 9.999480e+01
Calibrated 68.721853754 84.534106903 91.529672341 94.5659466012 96.289709508 9.748024e+01 9.839742e+01 9.912616e+01 9.968615e+01
Difference 0.983958665 -0.941723247 -0.798946256 0.2804824761 1.021737362 1.231171e+00 1.090222e+00 7.468249e-01 3.086570e-01 7.49957862323147
With Offshore Target 0.758143371 0.867920355 0.924520532 0.9573023962 0.977075205 9.884549e-01 9.949196e-01 9.983039e-01 9.996114e-01
Calibrated 0.752732703 0.878084267 0.934287151 0.9553580508 0.968809361 9.786069e-01 9.863219e-01 9.925249e-01 9.973283e-01
Difference 0.005410668 -0.010163912 -0.009766618 0.0019443454 0.008265844 9.848030e-03 8.597629e-03 5.778970e-03 2.283135e-03 0.0632464034424129
FI Without Offshore Target 64.248419739 79.441881059 87.537890735 92.5402481723 95.737211486 9.778634e+01 9.903527e+01 9.969712e+01 9.995479e+01
Calibrated 64.890325324 81.679834688 89.132198948 93.1112262835 95.217331400 9.667009e+01 9.780563e+01 9.874624e+01 9.954038e+01
Difference -0.641905585 -2.237953629 -1.594308213 -0.5709781111 0.519880086 1.116248e+00 1.229648e+00 9.508762e-01 4.144096e-01 9.33512095312847
With Offshore Target 0.674120816 0.812248906 0.885911872 0.9314756440 0.960641283 9.793813e-01 9.908533e-01 9.969928e-01 9.994612e-01
Calibrated 0.669775346 0.822589072 0.891680379 0.9276934342 0.948927660 9.642034e-01 9.763773e-01 9.864325e-01 9.949364e-01
Difference 0.004345470 -0.010340167 -0.005768507 0.0037822098 0.011713623 1.517796e-02 1.447597e-02 1.056033e-02 4.524832e-03 0.0813905993602886
GR Without Offshore Target 68.284392860 84.121568458 92.019978882 96.2703556818 98.533232070 9.961626e+01 9.997682e+01 1.000000e+02 1.000000e+02
Calibrated 71.414034080 85.800539732 92.098053320 94.8568031684 96.403216767 9.748158e+01 9.833619e+01 9.904720e+01 9.964657e+01
Difference -3.129641221 -1.678971274 -0.078074437 1.4135525134 2.130015303 2.134686e+00 1.640632e+00 9.528031e-01 3.534330e-01 13.6071614556569
With Offshore Target 0.848789489 0.919785617 0.955431902 0.9752771771 0.986504534 9.926219e-01 9.956086e-01 9.971396e-01 9.985698e-01
Calibrated 0.806384180 0.858680076 0.890927062 0.9153997726 0.935406818 9.526549e-01 9.680961e-01 9.815086e-01 9.931946e-01
Difference 0.042405309 0.061105542 0.064504840 0.0598774045 0.051097716 3.996700e-02 2.751257e-02 1.563098e-02 5.375215e-03 0.43768213694091
IT Without Offshore Target 70.490629654 87.957772620 95.323460541 98.7777301120 99.978810814 1.000000e+02 1.000000e+02 1.000000e+02 1.000000e+02
Calibrated 76.079609182 87.592046731 92.905126030 95.1064289133 96.574414104 9.767606e+01 9.854248e+01 9.922045e+01 9.972602e+01
Difference -5.588979528 0.365725889 2.418334511 3.6713011987 3.404396710 2.323944e+00 1.457516e+00 7.795451e-01 2.739754e-01 20.4178876526675
With Offshore Target 0.753632450 0.895300889 0.955519525 0.9842813108 0.994922246 9.960741e-01 9.970556e-01 9.980371e-01 9.990185e-01
Calibrated 0.771131639 0.886356737 0.937007975 0.9567301322 0.969666315 9.793992e-01 9.870533e-01 9.930661e-01 9.975369e-01
Difference -0.017499189 0.008944152 0.018511550 0.0275511786 0.025255932 1.667491e-02 1.000229e-02 4.970914e-03 1.481668e-03 0.132149657274521
NL Without Offshore Target 62.804378961 80.740467230 90.617254298 95.8956604742 98.629876229 9.977514e+01 1.000000e+02 1.000000e+02 1.000000e+02
Calibrated 63.027541934 80.849648038 88.835198883 93.2443444891 95.482257736 9.694347e+01 9.801753e+01 9.887999e+01 9.959423e+01
Difference -0.223162972 -0.109180808 1.782055415 2.6513159850 3.147618493 2.831675e+00 1.982465e+00 1.120008e+00 4.057717e-01 14.3282250077801
With Offshore Target 0.638264336 0.811154261 0.906567353 0.9577737096 0.984521052 9.959925e-01 9.986155e-01 9.990770e-01 9.995385e-01
Calibrated 0.648395786 0.813667640 0.890071085 0.9300619731 0.951792303 9.666877e-01 9.781779e-01 9.875628e-01 9.954308e-01
Difference -0.010131450 -0.002513379 0.016496267 0.0277117365 0.032728750 2.930484e-02 2.043765e-02 1.151426e-02 4.107706e-03 0.155819655672287
PT Without Offshore Target 63.273253248 81.837943801 90.047611938 94.4829377835 97.171194456 9.862364e+01 9.939884e+01 9.979570e+01 9.997177e+01
Calibrated 65.226744530 82.180986995 89.556846516 93.3031873966 95.356723980 9.677782e+01 9.788470e+01 9.879311e+01 9.955503e+01
Difference -1.953491282 -0.343043194 0.490765421 1.1797503869 1.814470476 1.845823e+00 1.514135e+00 1.002592e+00 4.167367e-01 10.6453523948864
With Offshore Target 0.694675628 0.846116582 0.913540680 0.9503422033 0.972969024 9.855692e-01 9.926747e-01 9.967106e-01 9.989550e-01
Calibrated 0.712253402 0.858677877 0.923305909 0.9509354952 0.965826409 9.761018e-01 9.842527e-01 9.910024e-01 9.966967e-01
Difference -0.017577774 -0.012561295 -0.009765229 -0.0005932919 0.007142614 9.467482e-03 8.422067e-03 5.708152e-03 2.258288e-03 0.0743797880080548
SI Without Offshore Target 64.827068114 84.488715975 93.248255945 97.7690616870 99.556508480 9.997392e+01 1.000000e+02 1.000000e+02 1.000000e+02
Calibrated 69.472762299 84.740239775 91.625318347 94.6663647263 96.285283226 9.740743e+01 9.829543e+01 9.902871e+01 9.964283e+01
Difference -4.645694184 -0.251523801 1.622937598 3.1026969607 3.271225254 2.566494e+00 1.704566e+00 9.712918e-01 3.571659e-01 18.5905752947083
With Offshore Target 0.667741352 0.852136482 0.934298750 0.9768582454 0.993928912 9.982105e-01 9.988387e-01 9.992258e-01 9.996129e-01
Calibrated 0.712046855 0.857646602 0.922877437 0.9504817215 0.965346699 9.757429e-01 9.840190e-01 9.908828e-01 9.966577e-01
Difference -0.044305503 -0.005510120 0.011421313 0.0263765239 0.028582213 2.246758e-02 1.481975e-02 8.342996e-03 2.955213e-03 0.165756001896473
SK Without Offshore Target 62.337227394 81.543830919 90.822551568 95.6739767083 98.259925116 9.960313e+01 9.999553e+01 1.000000e+02 1.000000e+02
Calibrated 65.250586951 81.821625884 89.226228379 93.1587147018 95.288741974 9.673823e+01 9.786519e+01 9.878647e+01 9.955196e+01
Difference -2.913359557 -0.277794965 1.596323189 2.5152620065 2.971183142 2.864900e+00 2.130337e+00 1.213534e+00 4.480403e-01 17.0128388567801
With Offshore Target 0.659258562 0.832066363 0.915544554 0.9593413964 0.982833075 9.951863e-01 9.990177e-01 9.993718e-01 9.996859e-01
Calibrated 0.648474960 0.821051929 0.896584633 0.9341937460 0.954585235 9.686218e-01 9.795126e-01 9.883726e-01 9.957369e-01
Difference 0.010783602 0.011014433 0.018959921 0.0251476504 0.028247841 2.656454e-02 1.950505e-02 1.099922e-02 3.948983e-03 0.155886084006878
FR Without Offshore Target 63.929675849 79.185849796 87.668726542 92.8881046127 96.136162436 9.806482e+01 9.915395e+01 9.972066e+01 9.995300e+01
Calibrated 67.702946319 81.810907017 88.414186792 91.9659361728 94.257618192 9.596999e+01 9.735194e+01 9.850995e+01 9.945474e+01
Difference -3.773270471 -2.625057221 -0.745460250 0.9221684399 1.878544244 2.094832e+00 1.802005e+00 1.210710e+00 4.982674e-01 15.7092961664708
With Offshore Target 0.677504216 0.812585240 0.887904541 0.9344288138 0.963558112 9.810454e-01 9.911252e-01 9.965957e-01 9.991156e-01
Calibrated 0.708349599 0.840562589 0.902023891 0.9326336956 0.952076617 9.664849e-01 9.780558e-01 9.876197e-01 9.954299e-01
Difference -0.030845383 -0.027977349 -0.014119350 0.0017951182 0.011481496 1.456053e-02 1.306942e-02 8.975958e-03 3.685745e-03 0.127708099121033

Betas and MPCs

Distribution.and.parameters AT BE DE ES FI GR IT NL PT SI SK FR
Without Offshore 0.1 0.99365172 0.99506140 0.98006031 0.99994229 0.99786858 0.99971989 0.99999025 0.99856787 0.99802705 0.99976331 0.99837292 0.99830057
0.2 0.93141376 0.93792153 0.80787330 0.99786172 0.97329393 0.99742971 0.99956135 0.98025339 0.97804797 0.99736847 0.97940541 0.97177513
0.3 0.80007020 0.81580034 0.62270565 0.98180958 0.91680391 0.98610444 0.99477537 0.92265983 0.92506854 0.98315542 0.92130642 0.91076120
0.4 0.63401241 0.63852249 0.47545900 0.91620582 0.79162016 0.94248691 0.96661276 0.77629773 0.79860630 0.93367159 0.79800848 0.80417964
0.5 0.45503103 0.47044562 0.32084765 0.75217980 0.61152136 0.80190141 0.87788296 0.56243721 0.61555299 0.78706805 0.61169627 0.65530940
0.6 0.28381096 0.29932697 0.23746545 0.52628645 0.41447125 0.56197013 0.70684146 0.35663017 0.42708277 0.55128593 0.41929359 0.49427006
0.7 0.19114062 0.20179100 0.17831025 0.27439566 0.22689579 0.29334033 0.48227488 0.20683203 0.24048278 0.27671738 0.23810317 0.31608444
0.8 0.16328828 0.16744678 0.15587526 0.18127837 0.18200145 0.19826950 0.23883618 0.17056873 0.18480600 0.19273591 0.18775509 0.22713470
0.9 0.13778120 0.14033660 0.13112361 0.14743440 0.15046241 0.15499993 0.17013071 0.14271550 0.15105347 0.15555948 0.15441328 0.18335808
1 0.11109745 0.11732887 0.11439462 0.10972408 0.11712180 0.11306693 0.11793324 0.10972574 0.11793721 0.11498897 0.11938883 0.14727978
Avg. MPC 0.47012976 0.47839816 0.40241151 0.58871182 0.53820606 0.60492892 0.65548392 0.52266882 0.54366651 0.59923145 0.54277434 0.57084530
beta_mid 0.96154448 0.96038451 0.96922825 0.94808272 0.95322639 0.94455816 0.93289573 0.95634854 0.95249909 0.94455816 0.95249909 0.94738553
beta_range 0.03845551 0.03869966 0.03077175 0.05191728 0.04243625 0.05528631 0.06404634 0.04365146 0.04481388 0.05528631 0.04481388 0.03758247
With Offshore 0.1 0.99719869 0.99895447 0.99422774 0.99999006 0.99814219 0.99994081 0.99999409 0.99790072 0.99987494 0.99982942 0.99872230 0.99944977
0.2 0.96562805 0.98582358 0.91537734 0.99966715 0.97695522 0.99883792 0.99981152 0.97434092 0.99821388 0.99792925 0.98352556 0.98973195
0.3 0.88763835 0.94036330 0.75456155 0.99645901 0.92375618 0.99594463 0.99750527 0.91247918 0.98963075 0.98842422 0.93394622 0.95806919
0.4 0.75580106 0.84579168 0.60008005 0.97831280 0.82223879 0.98602133 0.98069311 0.78004439 0.95417405 0.95109929 0.81555940 0.87454562
0.5 0.58106566 0.66075316 0.42070370 0.89507603 0.64998004 0.96801608 0.91837991 0.59448095 0.82313280 0.81644186 0.61737001 0.72009320
0.6 0.40196379 0.48097964 0.26564089 0.68148718 0.47675913 0.91564437 0.76005256 0.40686613 0.56916281 0.57001581 0.42987854 0.54197560
0.7 0.23652059 0.27687527 0.19431273 0.42412062 0.27782184 0.80293065 0.50948206 0.23218346 0.27858122 0.28154893 0.24115095 0.33115026
0.8 0.18865564 0.20614009 0.16357344 0.21593834 0.20827093 0.65595346 0.23162282 0.18404263 0.19070371 0.19094245 0.18413280 0.22392412
0.9 0.15616360 0.16976162 0.13620084 0.15954873 0.16900333 0.46377556 0.15979901 0.15339128 0.15118879 0.15083502 0.15126217 0.17703782
1 0.12168564 0.13176852 0.11362776 0.11287129 0.13177279 0.28030830 0.11068382 0.11814938 0.11008843 0.11008676 0.11799608 0.13563760
Avg. MPC 0.52923211 0.56972113 0.45583060 0.64634712 0.56347004 0.80673731 0.66680242 0.53538790 0.60647514 0.60571530 0.54735440 0.59516151
beta_mid 0.95322639 0.94813085 0.96428279 0.93785927 0.94813085 0.90416469 0.93227036 0.95300213 0.94455816 0.94455816 0.95249909 0.94531420
beta_range 0.04243625 0.04404311 0.03571721 0.06214072 0.04404311 0.04576946 0.06687937 0.04480030 0.05528631 0.05528631 0.04481388 0.04461878

Policy function

mpc_analysis$policies_fi

MPCs vs. Ginis

mpc_analysis$mpc_vs_gini

Distribution of MPCs

import seaborn as sns
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
mpcs_wide = r.mpcs_wide
# Save data frame
#import pickle
#with open("data/generated/mpcs.pkl", 'wb') as output:
#    pickle.dump(r.mpcs_wide, output)
# draw vplots
sns.set_style("whitegrid")
countries_per_plot = 2
for countries in np.split(mpcs_wide.Country.unique(), countries_per_plot):
    fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(7, 2.5)) # size
    mpc_vplot = sns.violinplot(
        data=mpcs_wide[mpcs_wide["Country"].isin(countries)], 
        x="Country", y="MPC", hue="Estimate",
        inner="quartile",  # box (default) looks prettier but unclear interpertation
        split=True,  # show offshore and non-offshore side-by-side
        #cut=0,  # limit density to observed values, i.e. in [0, 1]
        bw="scott", gridsize=100,  # standard kernel estimation parameters
        ax = ax
    )
    mpc_vplot.set_ylim(bottom=0, top=1) # limit the MPC axis to [0, 1]
    mpc_vplot.legend(title=None, frameon=True, loc=4) # nicer legend
    plt.show()